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Company Acquisition 2027 Odds & Leverage Trading

Which Companies Will Be Acquired Before 2027?

The corporate M&A landscape heading into 2027 features several high-profile targets across gaming, biotech, spirits, and technology sectors. Prediction markets currently track 14 active acquisition candidates, with MGM Resorts leading at 80% probability following a formal $18 billion bid from Barry Diller's People Inc. For traders looking to express views on these outcomes with capital efficiency, PredMart offers up to 5x leverage on acquisition markets, allowing positions that would otherwise require significantly more capital.

Several deals have already resolved positively in this market: Pizza Hut, iRobot, Warner Bros. Discovery, Caesars Entertainment, and Cursor have all confirmed acquisitions. The remaining candidates span from near-certainties to speculative long shots, creating opportunities across the probability spectrum.

The Clear Favorite: MGM Resorts at 80%

MGM Resorts International dominates this market after Barry Diller's People Inc. submitted a formal acquisition proposal in June 2026. The offer of $48.30 per share in cash values the Las Vegas casino and resort operator at approximately $18 billion. People Inc. already holds a 26.1% stake in MGM, making this a natural consolidation play.

The 80% probability reflects the concrete nature of this bid compared to mere speculation elsewhere. MGM's board has confirmed receipt of the proposal and is evaluating the offer. The remaining 20% discount accounts for regulatory approval requirements in gaming, potential competing bids, and the possibility that the Brown family (major shareholders) could reject the terms.

For context, Caesars Entertainment already resolved as acquired in this same market, suggesting the gaming sector M&A wave continues. MGM's prime Las Vegas Strip real estate and its BetMGM digital betting platform make it strategically valuable as states continue expanding legal sports betting.

Biotech Wildcard: Viking Therapeutics at 43.5%

Viking Therapeutics carries the second-highest probability at 43.5%, reflecting intense speculation around its obesity drug pipeline. The company's VK2735, a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist, represents arguably the most advanced obesity asset not owned by a pharmaceutical giant.

The Phase 3 VANQUISH-1 study enrolled over 4,500 patients ahead of schedule, and oral Phase 2 results showed up to 12.2% body weight reduction in just 13 weeks. These numbers put Viking in direct competition with Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Novo Nordisk's Wegovy.

Potential acquirers include:

The 43.5% probability suggests traders see roughly even odds on a deal materializing before year-end. Viking's management has not publicly engaged with acquisition speculation, maintaining focus on clinical development.

Spirits Industry Consolidation: Brown-Forman at 37.5%

Brown-Forman, maker of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, sits at 37.5% following confirmed merger discussions with French spirits giant Pernod Ricard. The company disclosed these talks in March 2026, describing a potential "merger of equals" that would unite the world's second-largest spirits maker with America's dominant whiskey producer.

Brown-Forman stock rose nearly 10% on the confirmation. However, analysts remain skeptical of completion. TD Cowen highlighted the Brown family's approximately 67% voting stake and their track record of rebuffing past acquisition attempts.

Several factors now make the family more receptive than historically:

A second suitor has also reportedly emerged, adding competitive tension. The 37.5% probability reflects the real possibility of a deal while acknowledging family control dynamics that have historically blocked transactions.

Tech Sector Targets

GitLab at 19.5%

GitLab carries a 19.5% acquisition probability despite no active deal discussions. The DevOps platform explored a potential sale in 2024 after attracting interest from Datadog and others, but no transaction materialized.

The company maintains over 10,000 paying customers at $5,000+ annually, growing 8% year-over-year. Strategic buyers would include:

GitLab's recent move from Microsoft Azure to Google Cloud signals strategic alignment that could facilitate a Google acquisition. The sub-20% probability suggests traders see this as possible but not imminent.

Perplexity AI at 21.5%

The AI search challenger Perplexity holds 21.5% acquisition odds despite rapid growth. The company's valuation reached approximately $22 billion as of January 2026 following Series E funding.

Revenue estimates suggest Perplexity hit $500 million annualized by April 2026, up 335% year-over-year, driven by its AI agent product launch and usage-based pricing. At this trajectory, the company appears more likely to pursue an IPO than accept acquisition.

Potential acquirers face a challenging proposition: Perplexity's valuation demands a premium that few could justify, while its growth suggests founders prefer independence. The 21.5% probability may reflect unlikely scenarios like market downturns forcing a sale or specific strategic buyers (Amazon, Apple) making compelling offers.

Snapchat at 20.6%

Snap Inc. carries 20.6% acquisition probability, with persistent buyout rumors surrounding the company. A Stocktwits poll found 49% of users believe Snap will be acquired within two years.

At approximately $14 billion market cap, Snap represents an affordable target for tech giants. Amazon buyout speculation circulated in 2025 but no formal bid emerged. The company recently authorized a $500 million stock repurchase program, signaling management believes shares are undervalued.

Snap's augmented reality investments, including the recent Illumix acquisition, position it as potentially attractive for companies seeking AR capabilities. Apple, Google, or Meta could theoretically benefit from Snap's technology and younger user demographics.

Financial Services: PayPal at 15.5%

PayPal Holdings carries 15.5% acquisition odds after Bloomberg reported the company met with banks regarding unsolicited buyer interest in February 2026. The stock had declined approximately 46% over the prior year, creating perceived value.

Potential acquirers span multiple categories:

The 15.5% probability suggests traders view acquisition as a minority outcome. PayPal's $200+ billion payment volume creates integration complexity, and regulatory scrutiny of major fintech consolidation adds uncertainty.

Gaming: Ubisoft at 11.5%

Ubisoft trades at 11.5% acquisition probability following its restructuring with Tencent. The Chinese gaming giant invested 1.16 billion euros for a 25% stake in Vantage Studios, a new subsidiary housing Assassin's Creed, Rainbow Six, and Far Cry franchises.

Key deal restrictions complicate further acquisition:

This structure was designed to provide capital while preventing full takeover. The 11.5% probability reflects the narrow path to acquisition, which would require renegotiating these terms or waiting for restrictions to expire.

Energy: BP at 11.5%

BP carries 11.5% acquisition odds amid persistent supermajor consolidation speculation. Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Abu Dhabi's Adnoc have all reportedly studied BP acquisition.

Shell issued a formal denial under UK Takeover Code rules in mid-2025, stating it was not actively considering an offer. Under these rules, Shell cannot make a bid for six months following its denial, pushing any Shell-BP combination into 2026 at earliest.

A combined Shell-BP would pump nearly 5 million barrels daily, exceeding both ExxonMobil and Chevron. BP's LNG assets would be particularly valuable to Shell's portfolio. The depressed share price creates acquisition appeal, but complexity of merging two supermajors keeps probability low.

Lower Probability Targets

Zoom Video Communications at 17.7%

Zoom's growth slowdown has fueled private equity acquisition speculation. At $25.3 billion market cap as of June 2026, the company trades well below pandemic highs. Analysis suggests a 33% private equity premium based on comparable software buyouts.

Zoom's estimated $1.2 billion stake in Anthropic adds complexity to any acquisition valuation. The 17.7% probability reflects possible but not expected deal activity.

Nebius Group at 12.5%

The former Yandex spinoff carries 12.5% acquisition probability as it develops AI infrastructure businesses outside Russia. Limited public deal speculation keeps probability low.

OpenAI at 6.2% and Anthropic at 5.5%

The leading AI labs carry single-digit acquisition probabilities, reflecting their strategic importance and massive valuations. Both companies have signaled preference for independence while building toward artificial general intelligence.

Microsoft's existing OpenAI relationship and Google/Amazon's Anthropic investments create complex dynamics that make traditional acquisition unlikely. These probabilities may represent scenarios like strategic shifts or unexpected funding crunches.

What Could Move These Markets

Several catalysts could shift probabilities across the board:

Interest Rate Environment: Lower rates reduce acquisition financing costs, potentially activating private equity buyers for PayPal, Zoom, and GitLab.

Regulatory Posture: FTC and DOJ merger enforcement intensity directly impacts deal completion probabilities. A more permissive stance would lift MGM, Viking, and Brown-Forman odds.

Sector-Specific Events: Viking Therapeutics Phase 3 results, Ubisoft game launches, or BP production announcements could trigger acquirer interest or seller willingness.

Market Conditions: Broad equity declines could make targets more affordable while also reducing acquirer capacity. 2024-2025 M&A activity provides a template for how cycles play out.

Trading Acquisition Markets with Leverage

Acquisition markets offer unique characteristics for traders: binary outcomes with defined timelines and catalysts that can shift probabilities rapidly. A company confirming acquisition talks might see its market jump 20-30 points overnight, while deal collapse can erase gains equally fast.

Using leverage on these markets amplifies both potential returns and risks proportionally. A 2x leveraged position on MGM at 80% could capture meaningful gains if the People Inc. deal closes, but a 3x position on Viking at 43.5% carries significant risk if no acquirer emerges. Careful position sizing becomes essential given the binary nature of outcomes.

For traders with strong conviction on specific deals, leverage provides capital efficiency that allows participation across multiple names. Rather than concentrating capital in a single acquisition bet, diversified leveraged positions can express a thesis across the gaming sector (MGM) and biotech space (Viking) simultaneously.

FAQ

Which company has the highest acquisition probability before 2027?

MGM Resorts International leads at 80% probability following Barry Diller's People Inc. formal acquisition proposal at $48.30 per share, valuing the company at approximately $18 billion. People Inc. already owns 26.1% of MGM, making consolidation straightforward.

Why is Viking Therapeutics considered an acquisition target?

Viking Therapeutics holds 43.5% acquisition probability due to its obesity drug pipeline. The company's VK2735 dual GLP-1/GIP agonist showed 12.2% body weight reduction in Phase 2 trials, and Phase 3 enrollment completed ahead of schedule. Major pharma companies lacking obesity franchises view Viking as the most advanced independent asset in the space.

What happened with the Brown-Forman Pernod Ricard merger talks?

Brown-Forman confirmed discussions with Pernod Ricard regarding a potential "merger of equals" in March 2026. The Brown family's 67% voting stake creates uncertainty, as they have historically rejected acquisition attempts. Current U.S. sales declines may make them more receptive than in the past.

Has any company in this market already been acquired?

Yes, several companies have already resolved as acquired: Pizza Hut, iRobot, Warner Bros. Discovery, Caesars Entertainment, and Cursor. These successful resolutions demonstrate the market tracks active M&A activity accurately.

Why are OpenAI and Anthropic acquisition probabilities so low?

OpenAI at 6.2% and Anthropic at 5.5% reflect their strategic importance and existing investor relationships. Microsoft's OpenAI partnership and Google/Amazon's Anthropic investments create complex dynamics. Both companies have signaled preference for independence while pursuing artificial general intelligence development.

Can prediction market positions on acquisitions be leveraged?

Yes, PredMart offers up to 5x leverage on acquisition markets, allowing traders to express conviction with capital efficiency. Binary outcomes like acquisitions can move rapidly on news, making position sizing and risk management essential when using leverage.

Related

Trade with up to 5x leverage: predmart.com/event/which-companies-will-be-acquired-before-2027

Vsevolod is the founder of PredMart and writes about leverage trading on prediction markets.