MLB: 2026 NL Cy Young Winner Odds & Analysis
The 2026 NL Cy Young Race After the Regular Season
The 2026 NL Cy Young Award is no longer a forecast about performance. The regular season ended in late September, the BBWAA ballots are in, and the only thing left is the announcement, scheduled for November 11 on MLB Network. As of late October 2026, prediction markets price Jacob Misiorowski at about 98 percent to win after the Brewers right-hander led the majors in ERA (1.80), strikeouts (252) and WHIP (0.80). Cristopher Sanchez, who looked like the frontrunner in June, now trades near 0.5 percent despite leading the majors with 18 wins and throwing 207 innings. Chris Sale, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani each sit at or below 1 percent. PredMart lists this market alongside the rest of the awards board.
What makes the race worth studying at this stage is not who is favored, but why the remaining 2 percent exists at all. Cy Young voting has a history of rewarding volume and wins, and Sanchez's case is built on exactly those things, while Misiorowski finished with 174 2/3 innings, a total that would once have been disqualifying for many voters. The modern electorate leans on rate stats and run prevention, and the market is betting heavily that this is how ballots were cast. This piece walks through each candidate's final line, the arguments voters weighed, and the few remaining dates before resolution.
Cristopher Sanchez: The Volume Case
Cristopher Sanchez finished the 2026 regular season at 18-7 with a 2.91 ERA, 231 strikeouts and 45 walks over 207 innings, according to CBS Sports' season-end line. He earned his 18th win against the Mets on September 20, which moved him into the major-league lead, and MLB.com's season-end leaderboard lists him as the NL wins leader. His final start, on September 25 against Tampa Bay, was a hard-luck loss: seven innings, two runs, 10 strikeouts. It was his second straight 200-inning season after 202 in 2025, when he finished runner-up to Paul Skenes.
The problem for Sanchez is the shape of his season. Through his first 16 starts he carried a 1.80 ERA with 121 strikeouts in 105 innings, per MLB.com, which is why he led the market in June. Over roughly the final 100 innings his run prevention slipped, and the full-season ERA rose by more than a run. Voters who weigh the whole season see a very good workhorse, not the dominant arm of the first half.
His strongest remaining argument is value. ESPN's Bradford Doolittle, in his September 17 Awards Watch, ranked Sanchez first in the NL by his AXE metric, driven largely by a bWAR lead. Doolittle himself said he doubted that lead was real and personally favored Misiorowski, and an MLB.com breakdown of the race noted Sanchez trailed Misiorowski by just 0.1 fWAR. A voter anchored to bWAR, innings and wins could still put Sanchez first on a ballot. The near-zero price says the market expects few, if any, writers to have done that, and certainly not enough to overturn a ballot count dominated by ERA and strikeouts.
Jacob Misiorowski: The Rate-Stat Case
Jacob Misiorowski finished 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts, 44 walks and a 0.80 WHIP in 174 2/3 innings, figures reported by MLB Network and MLB.com at season's end. He led the majors in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP and opponents' batting average (.157), and per MLB.com citing the Elias Sports Bureau, he joined Sandy Koufax (1965), J.R. Richard (1979) and Mike Scott (1986) as the only pitchers since 1950 to lead the majors in ERA, strikeouts and opponents' average in the same season. His 1.80 ERA broke the Brewers' single-season record for a starter.
The season had its signature moment early. On June 12 against the Phillies he threw a 15-strikeout complete-game shutout on fewer than 100 pitches, and in that stretch he recorded some of the fastest strikeout pitches ever measured for a starter. What changed between June and October is that the dominance held. Where Sanchez's ERA climbed by more than a run over the second half, Misiorowski's rose only from the low 1s to 1.80, and Doolittle's September 17 column credited him with the best game-score record in MLB.
The one real objection is innings. At 174 2/3, Misiorowski threw about 32 fewer innings than Sanchez, a gap voters of a generation ago would have punished. Recent electorates have been more willing to accept lighter workloads when the run prevention is elite, and the 98 percent price reflects confidence that a pitcher who led the majors in ERA, strikeouts and WHIP will win comfortably. For anyone holding the favorite, there is little upside left: buying near 98 cents risks the full stake for roughly a 2 percent return, and leverage scales that thin edge and the tail risk equally.
Misiorowski's season also continues on the field. The Brewers swept the Dodgers in the NLCS for the franchise's first pennant since joining the National League, and the World Series began on October 23. None of that counts for the award, since BBWAA ballots are submitted before the postseason begins.
The Rest of the Field: Sale, Burns, Yamamoto, Skenes and Ohtani
Chris Sale was the most credible third name all season. The 37-year-old Braves left-hander finished 14-9 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 27 starts, and his 10-strikeout final start on September 24 against the Reds pushed him past 200 strikeouts for the ninth time in his career, per ClutchPoints. That is an excellent season, but it trails Misiorowski on ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, and trails Sanchez on innings and wins. Sale is likely to collect down-ballot votes; the market prices his chance of winning at about 0.9 percent.
Chase Burns was arguably the best story of the first half, and his season ended early. The Reds placed him on the injured list with a right groin strain on September 20, and Field Level Media reported manager Terry Francona said his year was over. Burns finished 15-3 with a 2.86 ERA, 185 strikeouts and 154 1/3 innings in 29 starts, earning his first All-Star selection. The shortened workload and ERA leave him well outside the top two.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a 2025 finalist, ranked fifth in Doolittle's September AXE ratings but never closed the gap on the top two, and the market gives him about 1 percent. Paul Skenes, last year's unanimous winner, closed with a 3.82 ERA and 200 strikeouts in 32 starts, per MLB.com's recap of his September 24 finale, which takes him out of contention. Shohei Ohtani posted elite rate stats in a limited pitching role, but his innings total never approached the leaders, and he trades under 1 percent.
What Is Left Before Resolution
With ballots already cast, nothing a pitcher does from here changes the outcome. What remains are information events.
The first is the finalist announcement. The BBWAA has in recent years revealed its top three for each award on MLB Network roughly a week before the winners, which points to early November. The top three for the NL are widely expected to be Misiorowski, Sanchez and Sale. A finalist list that omitted Misiorowski is practically unthinkable; one that included a surprise name, such as Burns or Yamamoto in place of Sale, would hint at how scattered the down-ballot votes were but would not by itself threaten the favorite.
The second is the winner announcement itself, scheduled for November 11, the day before the MVP awards. The market's listed end date sits beyond that, so settlement follows the official result.
The third is the World Series. Misiorowski's October innings will shape his public profile and could affect future contract and award narratives, but they cannot change a regular-season award. Anyone reading postseason box scores as a signal for this market is reacting to noise.
Bottom Line
The 2026 NL Cy Young market has gone from one of the most contested awards boards in June to one of the most settled in October. Misiorowski led the majors in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP and opponents' average, and the market's roughly 98 percent price reflects how rarely a pitcher with that profile loses the vote. Sanchez's 207 innings, 18 wins and bWAR lead give him the only coherent alternative case, and his near-zero price says the market believes voters prioritized run prevention over volume, as recent electorates have.
The fair-value question is whether 98 percent is too high or too low. The historical record of BBWAA voting for pitchers who sweep the major rate categories argues it is about right, perhaps slightly conservative, with the residual reflecting the innings gap and a small chance of an unusual voting split. The remaining odds will move only on the finalist reveal and the November 11 announcement, and the low trading volume on this board means prices can drift a point or two without any news. Any leveraged position here is a bet on a narrow spread rather than on an open question, which makes position size more important than direction.
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