Politics Prediction Markets
Politics on prediction markets — presidential races, primaries, control of Congress, governors, and policy outcomes. Deep, liquid markets you can trade with leverage up to 5x.
New to leveraging Politics markets? Start with Leverage Trading on Political Prediction Markets.
Clacton By-Election Odds & Leverage Trading
Nigel Farage trades at 93.9% to win the August 2026 Clacton by-election he triggered amid ethics investigations. With Labour, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats all boycotting, Count Binface emerges as the symbolic main challenger.
PoliticsFlorida Governor Primary Odds & Leverage Trading
Byron Donalds commands 96% odds in Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary with Trump's endorsement and an $81M war chest. Can any challenger close the gap before August 18?
PoliticsBerlin State Election 2026 Odds & Leverage Trading
A five-way race with no clear favorite. Die Linke leads narrowly at 30.5%, but CDU, AfD, and Greens all poll within striking distance ahead of the September 20 vote.
PoliticsSenate 2026 Control Odds & Leverage Trading
Prediction markets price Republicans at 54.5% to hold the Senate after 2026, with Democrats at 46.5%. A detailed breakdown of the 35 seats up for election, the toss-up races that will decide control, and catalysts that could shift the odds.
GuideHow to Trade Governor Race Odds on Polymarket With Leverage
Governor race prediction markets see 30-50% price swings during campaigns, driven by sparse state-level polling and lower liquidity. Learn how volatility patterns differ from presidential races and how to size positions for gubernatorial contests.
GuideHow to Trade Ballot Measures on Polymarket with Leverage
Learn how to trade ballot measures on Polymarket using leverage - from interpreting polling data and status quo bias to managing liquidation risk on proposition and referendum markets.
AnalysisResolvedWill Keir Starmer Be Out Odds: Leverage Trading the UK Leadership Crisis
The Starmer resignation market moved from 15% to 73% in 48 hours - here is how leverage traders can position around the June 22 announcement window.
AnalysisNext Leader Out of Power Odds & Leverage Trading
With Colombia's Petro locked in at 49% and Starmer surging from 5% to 34.5% in weeks, this multi-outcome political market offers asymmetric leverage plays across wildly different risk profiles.
AnalysisHouse 2026 Election Odds & Leverage Trading
Democrats hold commanding 80.5% odds to flip the House in 2026, but redistricting gains and primary season catalysts create asymmetric leverage opportunities on both sides of the market.
AnalysisCalifornia Wealth Tax Odds & Leverage Trading
Governor Newsom's opposition has flipped the California billionaire tax market, creating one of 2026's most dramatic prediction market swings for leverage traders.
AnalysisNext UK Prime Minister Odds & Leverage Trading
Andy Burnham's by-election victory has reshaped the next UK prime minister market - here is what leverage traders need to know about the remaining opportunities.
AnalysisLA Mayoral Election Odds & Leverage Trading
The LA mayoral runoff between Karen Bass and Nithya Raman offers leverage traders a genuine two-horse race with meaningful catalysts ahead of November.
AnalysisCalifornia Governor 2026 Odds & Leverage Trading
The California gubernatorial race is now a two-candidate affair, and the odds gap between Becerra and Hilton creates distinct leverage opportunities on both sides of the trade.
Analysis2026 Midterms Odds & Leverage Trading
The 2026 midterms balance of power market offers leverage traders four distinct outcomes with sharply different risk-reward profiles heading into fall campaign season.
AnalysisFrench Presidential Election Odds & Leverage Trading
Jordan Bardella leads prediction market pricing at 26% while Marine Le Pen's candidacy hangs on a July 7 court verdict - a binary event that could reprice the entire field overnight.
Analysis2028 Presidential Election Odds & Leverage Trading
The 2028 presidential race is already repricing on prediction markets - here is how leverage traders can position into a fractured field with no clear favorite.
Analysis2028 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds & Leverage Trading
The 2028 Republican nomination race offers leverage traders a volatile field where Vance's falling support and Rubio's surge create asymmetric opportunities.
Analysis2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds & Leverage Trading
Newsom is fading, Ossoff is surging on an op-ed he's publicly disavowing, and Harris is in free fall. The 2028 Democratic nominee board, read for leverage traders.