Politics Prediction Markets
Politics on prediction markets — presidential races, primaries, control of Congress, governors, and policy outcomes. Deep, liquid markets you can trade with leverage up to 5x.
New to leveraging Politics markets? Start with Leverage Trading on Political Prediction Markets.
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends Odds & Analysis
Markets price Senator McConnell's resignation at 45%, a near-coin-flip that compresses extraordinary complexity into a single number. Here's what that price structure reveals.
PoliticsAlaska Governor Election Winner Odds & Analysis
With Dunleavy term-limited, prediction markets price Begich at 35.5% and Wilson at 29.5%. Historical base rates reveal Alaska has alternated parties in all but one gubernatorial cycle since 1959.
PoliticsWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026 Odds & Analysis
With 5.5% odds and $737,000 in volume, the Maxwell pardon market reveals how traders price politically toxic low-probability events. Examine the spread dynamics, asymmetric payoffs, and leverage mechanics.
PoliticsQuebec General Election Winner Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price PQ at 70.5% to win Quebec's 2026 election while CAQ sits at just 15.0%. We examine the strongest mispricing arguments in both directions and identify where genuine value exists.
PoliticsTexas Senate Election Winner Odds & Analysis
The Texas Senate race prices Republicans at 56.5% and Democrats at 43.5%, but resolution mechanics matter more than polling for leveraged traders. Here is how the market actually settles.
GeopoliticsLebanon Parliamentary Election Winner Odds & Analysis
Lebanon's 2026 parliamentary election features extreme fragmentation with 21 outcomes and no party above 2.1%. Explore cross-market correlations, spread trades, and leveraged position strategies.
PoliticsHow many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections Odds & Analysis
Markets price Republicans holding 26-27 governorships at 19.5% after the 2026 midterms. This catalyst-timeline analysis maps the primary gauntlet, debate windows, and resolution sequence for leveraged positioning.
PoliticsWill Trump resign by December 31, 2026 Odds & Analysis
The 3.7% Yes price creates a heavy-No market structure where most capital consolidates on one side. Understanding how thin-probability contracts function reveals opportunities in both directions.
PoliticsLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Lee Jae-myung's arrest before 2027 at just 10.9%, creating a 9-to-1 asymmetric payoff structure. Here's what the market structure reveals.
PoliticsOklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner Odds & Analysis
Master leverage positioning on the Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary with Mazzei at 81.5% and Drummond at 15.0%. Complete breakdown of liquidation distances, carrying costs, and exit planning.
PoliticsMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner Odds & Analysis
Six parties trade at 0.1% while AfD dominates at 85.5%. Explore the convexity math behind tail bets and how small probability shifts create outsized leveraged returns.
PoliticsSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner Odds & Analysis
The South Carolina Republican Senate special primary market shows a striking 70-20-7.5 distribution. Understand what this probability ladder means for leveraged traders.
PoliticsFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027 Odds & Analysis
Markets price Merz departing the chancellorship before 2027 at just 12.5%, signaling strong confidence in stability. Explore what the spread structure reveals and how 5x leverage affects both sides of this political bet.
PoliticsAlaska Senate Election Winner Odds & Analysis
The Alaska Senate race features Mary Peltola at 56.5% versus incumbent Dan Sullivan at 44.0%. A catalyst-by-catalyst breakdown of repricing events from primary to ranked-choice resolution.
PoliticsKash Patel out by... Odds & Analysis
The spread between 1.8% July exit odds and 31.5% December exit odds reveals where traders see real risk concentrating. Analyze the probability ladder structure and leverage opportunities.
PoliticsArgentina Presidential Election Winner Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Milei at 51.5% for reelection, but Argentine incumbents have won 66.7% of the time since 1983. This base-rate gap creates potential trading opportunities.
PoliticsWhich states will use new congressional maps in the midterms Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets show a striking bimodal structure on congressional redistricting: seven states price above 90% for new maps, seven below 10%, with Utah's massive volume anomaly signaling where real price discovery happens.
PoliticsRomanian PM Bolojan out by... Odds & Analysis
The Bolojan departure market's time-ladder structure tells a precise story through its 93.9-point spread between contracts. Here's what the pricing reveals about expected timing and how to trade it.
PoliticsWho will Trump pardon before 2027 Odds & Analysis
With 12 potential pardon recipients priced by prediction markets and a December 31, 2026 deadline, the trading question is not just who but when. A catalyst-timeline framework for pardon positioning.
PoliticsRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections Odds & Analysis
The 2026 Republican House seats market prices 10 brackets from below 190 to 230+ seats. Understanding resolution timing, vacancy treatment, and certification rules matters more than political prediction alone.
PoliticsRepublican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Democrats to gain Senate seats in 2026, with 64% probability of Republicans falling to 50 or fewer seats. Race-by-race analysis and leverage trading strategies for the November midterms.
PoliticsWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Democrats at 58.5% to win the 2028 presidential election, with Republicans trailing at 40.5%. Here is what is driving the spread and how traders can position around upcoming catalysts.
PoliticsMaine Senate Election Winner Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Democrats at 68.5% to flip Maine's Senate seat, with Troy Jackson emerging as the nominee after Graham Platner's withdrawal. Analysis of Collins' vulnerabilities and leverage trading opportunities.
PoliticsWill Trump be impeached by end of 2026 Odds & Analysis
With Republicans holding a narrow 218-215 House majority and the new Congress not seated until January 2027, prediction markets price Trump impeachment at just 2.1% despite 52% public support.
PoliticsSachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price the AfD at 98.5% to win the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt election. We analyze the odds, polling data, and trading opportunities.
PoliticsWho will announce Presidential run before 2027 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price 69 potential candidates for pre-2027 presidential announcements, with Pete Buttigieg leading at 13.5% after refusing to rule out a 2028 bid during his July Iowa visit.
PoliticsClacton by-election Winner Odds & Analysis
Nigel Farage trades at 93.9% to win the August 2026 Clacton by-election he triggered amid ethics investigations. With Labour, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats all boycotting, Count Binface emerges as the symbolic main challenger.
PoliticsFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner Odds & Analysis
Byron Donalds commands 96% odds in Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary with Trump's endorsement and an $81M war chest. Can any challenger close the gap before August 18?
PoliticsWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by... Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Alito retirement by December 2026 at 14.5%, with the June 2027 contract at 42.5%. Analysis of political pressures, health speculation, and the strategic calculus facing the 76-year-old conservative justice.
PoliticsTrump out as President by July 31 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Trump leaving office by July 31 at just 0.55%. We analyze the constitutional barriers, Iran war pressures, and why removal remains nearly impossible in 14 days.
PoliticsBerlin State Election Winner Odds & Analysis
A five-way race with no clear favorite. Die Linke leads narrowly at 30.5%, but CDU, AfD, and Greens all poll within striking distance ahead of the September 20 vote.
PoliticsWhich party will win the Senate in 2026 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price Republicans at 54.5% to hold the Senate after 2026, with Democrats at 46.5%. A detailed breakdown of the 35 seats up for election, the toss-up races that will decide control, and catalysts that could shift the odds.
PoliticsNext Prime Minister of Romania Odds & Analysis
Alexandru Nazare holds 45% odds to become Romania's next Prime Minister as the country enters its third month without a confirmed government. Sorin Grindeanu trails at 24%.
GuideHow to Trade Governor Race Odds on Polymarket With Leverage
Governor race prediction markets see 30-50% price swings during campaigns, driven by sparse state-level polling and lower liquidity. Learn how volatility patterns differ from presidential races and how to size positions for gubernatorial contests.
GuideHow to Trade Ballot Measures on Polymarket with Leverage
Learn how to trade ballot measures on Polymarket using leverage - from interpreting polling data and status quo bias to managing liquidation risk on proposition and referendum markets.
AnalysisResolvedWill Keir Starmer Be Out Odds: Leverage Trading the UK Leadership Crisis
The Starmer resignation market moved from 15% to 73% in 48 hours - here is how leverage traders can position around the June 22 announcement window.
AnalysisResolvedNext Leader Out of Power Odds & Analysis
With Colombia's Petro locked in at 49% and Starmer surging from 5% to 34.5% in weeks, this multi-outcome political market offers asymmetric leverage plays across wildly different risk profiles.
AnalysisWhich party will win the House in 2026 Odds & Analysis
Democrats hold commanding 80.5% odds to flip the House in 2026, but redistricting gains and primary season catalysts create asymmetric leverage opportunities on both sides of the market.
AnalysisBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026 Odds & Analysis
Governor Newsom's opposition has flipped the California billionaire tax market, creating one of 2026's most dramatic prediction market swings for leverage traders.
AnalysisResolvedNext UK Prime Minister Odds & Analysis
Andy Burnham's by-election victory has reshaped the next UK prime minister market - here is what leverage traders need to know about the remaining opportunities.
AnalysisLos Angeles Mayoral Election Odds & Analysis
The LA mayoral runoff between Karen Bass and Nithya Raman offers leverage traders a genuine two-horse race with meaningful catalysts ahead of November.
AnalysisCalifornia Governor Election Winner Odds & Analysis
The California gubernatorial race is now a two-candidate affair, and the odds gap between Becerra and Hilton creates distinct leverage opportunities on both sides of the trade.
AnalysisBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms Odds & Analysis
The 2026 midterms balance of power market offers leverage traders four distinct outcomes with sharply different risk-reward profiles heading into fall campaign season.
AnalysisNext French Presidential Election Odds & Analysis
Jordan Bardella leads prediction market pricing at 26% while Marine Le Pen's candidacy hangs on a July 7 court verdict - a binary event that could reprice the entire field overnight.
AnalysisPresidential Election Winner 2028 Odds & Analysis
The 2028 presidential race is already repricing on prediction markets - here is how leverage traders can position into a fractured field with no clear favorite.
AnalysisRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028 Odds & Analysis
The 2028 Republican nomination race offers leverage traders a volatile field where Vance's falling support and Rubio's surge create asymmetric opportunities.
AnalysisDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Odds & Analysis
Newsom is fading, Ossoff is surging on an op-ed he's publicly disavowing, and Harris is in free fall. The 2028 Democratic nominee board, read for leverage traders.