Politics Prediction Markets

Politics on prediction markets — presidential races, primaries, control of Congress, governors, and policy outcomes. Deep, liquid markets you can trade with leverage up to 5x.

New to leveraging Politics markets? Start with Leverage Trading on Political Prediction Markets.

Politics

Clacton By-Election Odds & Leverage Trading

Nigel Farage trades at 93.9% to win the August 2026 Clacton by-election he triggered amid ethics investigations. With Labour, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats all boycotting, Count Binface emerges as the symbolic main challenger.

· 11 min read

Politics

Florida Governor Primary Odds & Leverage Trading

Byron Donalds commands 96% odds in Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary with Trump's endorsement and an $81M war chest. Can any challenger close the gap before August 18?

· 13 min read

Politics

Berlin State Election 2026 Odds & Leverage Trading

A five-way race with no clear favorite. Die Linke leads narrowly at 30.5%, but CDU, AfD, and Greens all poll within striking distance ahead of the September 20 vote.

· 12 min read

Politics

Senate 2026 Control Odds & Leverage Trading

Prediction markets price Republicans at 54.5% to hold the Senate after 2026, with Democrats at 46.5%. A detailed breakdown of the 35 seats up for election, the toss-up races that will decide control, and catalysts that could shift the odds.

· 11 min

Guide

How to Trade Governor Race Odds on Polymarket With Leverage

Governor race prediction markets see 30-50% price swings during campaigns, driven by sparse state-level polling and lower liquidity. Learn how volatility patterns differ from presidential races and how to size positions for gubernatorial contests.

· 7 min read

Guide

How to Trade Ballot Measures on Polymarket with Leverage

Learn how to trade ballot measures on Polymarket using leverage - from interpreting polling data and status quo bias to managing liquidation risk on proposition and referendum markets.

· 7 min read

AnalysisResolved

Will Keir Starmer Be Out Odds: Leverage Trading the UK Leadership Crisis

The Starmer resignation market moved from 15% to 73% in 48 hours - here is how leverage traders can position around the June 22 announcement window.

· 10 min read

Analysis

Next Leader Out of Power Odds & Leverage Trading

With Colombia's Petro locked in at 49% and Starmer surging from 5% to 34.5% in weeks, this multi-outcome political market offers asymmetric leverage plays across wildly different risk profiles.

· 10 min read

Analysis

House 2026 Election Odds & Leverage Trading

Democrats hold commanding 80.5% odds to flip the House in 2026, but redistricting gains and primary season catalysts create asymmetric leverage opportunities on both sides of the market.

· 10 min read

Analysis

California Wealth Tax Odds & Leverage Trading

Governor Newsom's opposition has flipped the California billionaire tax market, creating one of 2026's most dramatic prediction market swings for leverage traders.

· 10 min read

Analysis

Next UK Prime Minister Odds & Leverage Trading

Andy Burnham's by-election victory has reshaped the next UK prime minister market - here is what leverage traders need to know about the remaining opportunities.

· 9 min read

Analysis

LA Mayoral Election Odds & Leverage Trading

The LA mayoral runoff between Karen Bass and Nithya Raman offers leverage traders a genuine two-horse race with meaningful catalysts ahead of November.

· 9 min read

Analysis

California Governor 2026 Odds & Leverage Trading

The California gubernatorial race is now a two-candidate affair, and the odds gap between Becerra and Hilton creates distinct leverage opportunities on both sides of the trade.

· 10 min read

Analysis

2026 Midterms Odds & Leverage Trading

The 2026 midterms balance of power market offers leverage traders four distinct outcomes with sharply different risk-reward profiles heading into fall campaign season.

· 9 min read

Analysis

French Presidential Election Odds & Leverage Trading

Jordan Bardella leads prediction market pricing at 26% while Marine Le Pen's candidacy hangs on a July 7 court verdict - a binary event that could reprice the entire field overnight.

· 10 min read

Analysis

2028 Presidential Election Odds & Leverage Trading

The 2028 presidential race is already repricing on prediction markets - here is how leverage traders can position into a fractured field with no clear favorite.

· 9 min read

Analysis

2028 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds & Leverage Trading

The 2028 Republican nomination race offers leverage traders a volatile field where Vance's falling support and Rubio's surge create asymmetric opportunities.

· 10 min read

Analysis

2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds & Leverage Trading

Newsom is fading, Ossoff is surging on an op-ed he's publicly disavowing, and Harris is in free fall. The 2028 Democratic nominee board, read for leverage traders.

· 7 min read