Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

About this market: This market asks whether the United States will formally declare war on Iran through constitutional channels before the end of 2026. Following months of military conflict that included airstrikes and naval engagements, the Trump administration signed a memorandum of understanding with Iranian President Pezeshkian in June 2026, establishing a ceasefire and diplomatic framework. The market hinges on whether Congress will invoke its Article I war declaration powers - something no administration has sought since World War II. For the complete breakdown of catalysts and leverage trading opportunities, read the full analysis.