AI & Tech Prediction Markets

AI and tech on prediction markets — model releases, lab valuations, IPOs, and benchmark races. Trade the outcomes with leverage up to 5x.

New to leveraging AI & Tech markets? Start with How to Trade AI Markets on Polymarket With Leverage.

Tech

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ Odds & Analysis

Prediction markets price OpenAI at 79.5% to exceed $800B and 73.5% to break $1T at IPO close. A complete catalyst calendar maps every repricing event from SEC review through pricing night.

· 11 min read

Tech

IPOs before 2027 Odds & Analysis

The OpenAI IPO contract trades at 20%, pricing four out of five scenarios ending without a 2027 public offering. Understanding this spread reveals where informed capital flows and how to structure leveraged positions.

· 12 min read

Tech

Richest person on December 31, 2026 Odds & Analysis

How the outcome ladder is priced in wealth-ranking markets: what the spread between outcomes implies, where the probability distribution is fat or thin, and which contracts carry genuine information for traders.

· 11 min read

Tech

GPT-6 released by… Odds & Analysis

The GPT-6 prediction market reveals a probability cliff between August and September, with 72.5% confidence in a Q3 release. Analyze the six-outcome ladder structure and leverage opportunities.

· 11 min read

Tech

Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition Odds & Analysis

Prediction markets price Paramount Skydance at 72.5% to close the Warner Bros Discovery acquisition, with deal failure at 21.0%. The August 3 preliminary injunction hearing will likely determine the near-term trajectory of this $110 billion media merger.

· 12 min read

Tech

OpenAI IPO by... Odds & Analysis

Prediction markets currently price an OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at just 19% probability, reflecting deep skepticism about the company's ability to go public this year despite filing its confidential S-1 in June.

· 11 min read

Tech

AI bubble burst in 2026 Odds & Analysis

Prediction markets price an AI industry downturn by December 31, 2026 at 21%, requiring three of six specific trigger conditions including Nvidia crashes and AI lab bankruptcies.

· 12 min read

Finance

Will GameStop acquire eBay Odds & Analysis

GameStop's $55.5 billion hostile bid for eBay has the prediction market pricing acquisition odds at 12.5%. With Ryan Cohen waiving his CEO bonus to focus on the deal and HSR clearance secured, the stage is set for a proxy fight.

· 12 min read

AI/Tech

Which companies will be acquired before 2027 Odds & Analysis

Track real-time acquisition probabilities for MGM Resorts, Viking Therapeutics, Brown-Forman, and more heading into 2027.

· 11 min

AI

Which company has best AI model end of July Odds & Analysis

Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 holds an 87% probability to top the LMArena leaderboard by end of July 2026, with Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro launch the only realistic threat at 12%.

· 10 min

Guide

How to Trade AI Markets on Polymarket With Leverage

AI prediction markets let you trade GPT releases, AGI timelines, and AI milestones with up to 5x leverage. Learn liquidation math, risk management, and which AI markets suit leveraged positions.

· 7 min read

Analysis

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31 Odds & Analysis

Anthropic's Series H at $965B and confidential S-1 filing have sent valuation threshold contracts soaring - here is how leverage traders can position across the entire price ladder.

· 9 min read

Analysis

Anthropic IPO by __ Odds & Analysis

With Anthropic's S-1 filed and October listing targeted, leverage traders have a rare window to position on the AI sector's biggest IPO before the roadshow reprices everything.

· 10 min read