Economics Prediction Markets
Economics on prediction markets — Fed decisions, CPI and inflation prints, jobs reports, and recession calls. Scheduled catalysts with sharp repricings you can trade with leverage up to 5x.
New to leveraging Economics markets? Start with Leverage Trading on Economic Prediction Markets.
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027 Odds & Analysis
The FOMC calendar through December creates distinct repricing windows for Fed rate threshold contracts. With upper bound 4.5% at 13.5% and lower bound 3.25% at 12.5%, each meeting and data release shifts the probability landscape.
FinanceWhat will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December Odds & Analysis
With gold at 9.5% probability to reach $6000 by year-end, traders must navigate a compressed Q4 catalyst calendar. Here is every scheduled event that could reprice this market.
CryptoBitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 Odds & Analysis
The 2-point spread between Gold at 18% and Bitcoin at 16% reveals genuine market uncertainty. Volume asymmetry, correlation structure, and implied equity dominance create exploitable opportunities.
GeopoliticsRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by... Odds & Analysis
Historical base rates suggest 15-20% of major interstate wars reach ceasefire within five years. The market prices 24.5% for December 2026 - here is the analytical breakdown.
EconomicsHow high will inflation get in 2026 Odds & Analysis
The 2026 inflation market's outcome ladder prices three thresholds from 4.5% to 10%, with the spread between contracts revealing where sophisticated capital sees the real battleground.
FinanceFed rate hike by... Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price a 24% probability of a Fed rate hike by July 2026. Historical base-rate analysis of FOMC policy cycles provides crucial context for evaluating this probability.
TechOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price an 81.5% chance OpenAI will not IPO by December 2026. Historical base rates for high-valuation tech companies explain this skepticism and what it means for leveraged traders.
FinanceCrude Oil all time high by... Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets are pricing crude oil at just 15.5% to reach a new all-time high by the end of 2026. With WTI needing to climb from $88 to surpass the $147.27 record set in July 2008, the market reflects significant skepticism despite ongoing US-Iran tensions and fragile ceasefire conditions.
EconomicsUS recession by end of 2026 Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets price US recession probability at 10% for 2026. Analysis covers GDP data, tariff drag, Fed policy, and what would trigger a contraction.
EconomicsResolvedJune 2026 US Inflation Odds & Analysis
Prediction market traders are betting heavily that June 2026 annual inflation will clock in at 3.8%, a sharp drop from May's 4.2% reading. The Iran ceasefire and falling gasoline prices have reshaped expectations ahead of the July 14 CPI release.
GuideIs Leverage Profitable on Polymarket?
Break-even win rate rises 8-15% when using leverage on prediction markets due to entry fees, interest, and liquidation risk. Learn the exact math to calculate your required accuracy before trading.
GuideFed Rate Decisions: Leverage Trading on Polymarket
Trade Federal Reserve rate decision markets on Polymarket with up to 5x leverage using PredMart. Learn how Fed markets work, liquidation thresholds, costs, and timing strategies for leveraged FOMC trades.
EconomicsFed Decision in July Odds & Analysis
prediction market prices an 82% chance the Fed holds rates in July 2026, with hike odds rising to 17% after Chair Warsh's hawkish debut and elevated inflation readings.
AnalysisFed rate hike in 2026? | Leverage up to 5x Odds & Analysis
The market has largely priced that the Fed hikes in 2026 - the live question is which meeting. A leverage-focused look at the timing race and the asymmetric July and No-Hike bets.
AnalysisWhat will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026 Odds & Analysis
The June FOMC meeting reshuffled Fed rate expectations for year-end 2026, creating asymmetric leverage opportunities across the entire probability spectrum.
AnalysisHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026 Odds & Analysis
The Iran war energy shock and Chair Warsh's hawkish pivot have driven zero-cut odds to 81% - here is how leverage traders are positioning for the next FOMC catalyst.