2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner

Current odds

• UBJP — 72.5%
• BFP — 14.5%
• ROHOSUPA — 4.3%
• ISLPI — 4.0%
• MAHARDIKA — 3.1%
• RSEU — 3.0%
• THE ROYALS — 2.9%
• PBB — 2.9%
• Election Postponed/Canceled — 2.2%
• ABOT — 1.8%
• C4P — 1.7%
• RSL — 1.4%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

Parliamentary elections to elect the Bangsamoro Parliament are scheduled to take place on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections. If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).

About this market: UBJP leads the "2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner" market, ahead of BFP and ROHOSUPA. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.