2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Current odds

• 1st hottest — 86.0%
• 3rd hottest — 13.5%
• 2nd hottest — 2.1%
• 4th or lower — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

About this market: 1st hottest leads the "2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" market, ahead of 3rd hottest and 2nd hottest. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.