2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Current odds

• Jean-Luc Mélenchon — 96.5%
• Marine Le Pen — 89.5%
• Édouard Philippe — 84.0%
• Nathalie Arthaud — 83.0%
• Éric Zemmour — 73.0%
• François Hollande — 31.5%
• Sarah Knafo — 21.5%
• Michel-Edouard Leclerc — 15.0%
• Juan Branco — 14.0%
• Matthieu Pigasse — 12.0%
• Philippe de Villiers — 7.5%
• Jérôme Guedj — 7.0%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: Mélenchon leads the "2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?" market, ahead of Pen and Philippe. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.