Anthropic IPO by __?

Current odds

• December 31, 2026 — 67.0%
• October 31, 2026 — 35.5%
• September 30, 2026 — 5.5%
• September 15, 2026 — 0.9%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: Anthropic filed its confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, targeting a Nasdaq listing later this year with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley leading the offering. The market prices in various deadline scenarios from September through December, with probability shifting rapidly as the IPO timeline crystallizes. Traders are positioning ahead of key catalysts including the public S-1 release and institutional roadshow - read the full analysis.