Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Current odds

• September 30 — 12.5%
• June 30 — 1.2%
• June 22 — 0.9%
• June 15 — 0.4%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

About this market: September 30 leads the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? market, ahead of June 30 and June 22. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.