Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Current odds

• December 31 — 18.5%
• September 30 — 8.5%
• August 31 — 3.6%
• July 31 — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

About this market: This market tracks whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will become effectively closed to commercial shipping, defined as a 7-day moving average of 10 or fewer daily transit calls according to IMF PortWatch data. The narrow strait between Yemen and Djibouti handles roughly 12% of global trade and has faced persistent Houthi attacks since late 2023. Multiple deadline tiers allow traders to express views on both probability and timing of potential closure. read the full analysis