Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Current odds

• Lionel Messi — 44.6%
• Lamine Yamal — 29.1%
• Harry Kane — 18.2%
• Ousmane Dembélé — 3.5%
• Kylian Mbappé — 2.1%
• Khvicha Kvaratskhelia — 1.7%
• Jude Bellingham — 0.8%
• Erling Haaland — 0.8%
• Michael Olise — 0.6%
• Pedri — 0.5%
• Lautaro Martinez — 0.4%
• Declan Rice — 0.3%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

About this market: The 2026 Ballon d'Or race is wide open with Harry Kane (26%) and Kylian Mbappe (25%) leading a competitive field as the World Cup reshapes the odds. Defending champion Ousmane Dembele and a resurgent Lionel Messi lurk in the teens, while value picks like Michael Olise and Erling Haaland could spike on deep tournament runs. The October 26 ceremony in London will crown the winner -- read the full analysis.