Berlin State Election Winner

Current odds

• Linke — 37.0%
• CDU — 29.0%
• Grüne — 16.4%
• AfD — 12.7%
• SPD — 6.2%
• FDP — 0.1%
• FW — 0.1%
• BSW — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

About this market: The 2026 Berlin state election determines which party wins the most seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus, Berlin's parliament. With five parties polling within striking distance and housing policy dominating the debate, the race offers genuine uncertainty about whether Die Linke, CDU, AfD, or the Greens will emerge on top. Coalition dynamics ensure the winner may not lead the government - making this both a seat-count wager and a political puzzle. read the full analysis