Brazil Presidential Election

Current odds

• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — 65.5%
• Flávio Bolsonaro — 25.9%
• Renan Santos — 7.5%
• Ronaldo Caiado — 1.1%
• Jair Bolsonaro — 0.7%
• Camilo Santana — 0.5%
• Geraldo Alckmin — 0.4%
• Romeu Zema — 0.2%
• Fernando Haddad — 0.1%
• Michelle Bolsonaro — 0.1%
• Tereza Cristina — 0.1%
• Tarcisio de Freitas — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

About this market: Brazil's 2026 presidential election has become a three-way race after a banking scandal fractured the right-wing coalition. Lula leads as the incumbent seeking re-election, while Flavio Bolsonaro faces fallout from leaked audio tying him to a convicted banker. Meanwhile, MBL founder Renan Santos has emerged as a youth-driven alternative capturing disillusioned conservative voters. With party conventions in July and candidate registration locking in August, the field will crystallize rapidly before October's vote - read the full analysis.