Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Current odds

• Flávio Bolsonaro — 80.5%
• Renan Santos — 10.1%
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — 7.6%
• Ronaldo Caiado — 1.1%
• Fernando Haddad — 1.0%
• Michelle Bolsonaro — 0.6%
• Camilo Santana — 0.4%
• Jair Bolsonaro — 0.3%
• Romeu Zema — 0.2%
• Tarcisio de Freitas — 0.2%
• Geraldo Alckmin — 0.1%
• Eduardo Bolsonaro — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

About this market: Brazil's 2026 presidential race centers on who finishes second to Lula in the first round - that runner-up faces him in the October runoff. Flavio Bolsonaro entered as the favorite carrying his jailed father's endorsement, but a leaked audio scandal involving a Hollywood biopic and a convicted banker has fractured the right-wing coalition, while MBL founder Renan Santos has surged on outsider momentum. Party conventions in late July will force clarity on who commands coalition resources and who fades. For the full leverage-trader breakdown of every contender and catalyst window, read the full analysis.