Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Current odds

• Renan Santos — 63.5%
• Ronaldo Caiado — 16.5%
• Flávio Bolsonaro — 4.6%
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — 1.7%
• Ratinho Júnior — 1.2%
• Fernando Haddad — 0.4%
• Aldo Rebelo — 0.1%
• Michelle Bolsonaro — 0.1%
• Tarcisio de Freitas — 0.1%
• Camilo Santana — 0.1%
• Eduardo Bolsonaro — 0.1%
• Jair Bolsonaro — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

About this market: Santos leads the "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" market, ahead of Caiado and Bolsonaro. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.