Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

Current odds

• Lula — 73.5%
• Flavio Bolsonaro — 26.5%
• Rui Costa Pimenta — 0.1%
• Veterinário Wilson Grassi — 0.1%
• Hertz Dias — 0.1%
• Escritor Augusto Cury — 0.1%
• Zema — 0.1%
• Edmilson Costa — 0.1%
• Renan Santos — 0.1%
• Clariana Barao — 0.1%
• Pablo Marçal — 0.1%
• Ronaldo Caiado — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

About this market: Lula leads the "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" market, ahead of Bolsonaro and Pimenta. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.