California Governor Election Winner

Current odds

• Xavier Becerra — 93.7%
• Steve Hilton — 6.3%
• Chad Bianco — 0.1%
• Rick Caruso — 0.1%
• Alex Padilla — 0.1%
• Katie Porter — 0.1%
• Antonio Villaraigosa — 0.1%
• Stephen Cloobeck — 0.1%
• Butch Ware — 0.1%
• Betty Yee — 0.1%
• Toni Atkins — 0.1%
• Kyle Langford — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

About this market: California voters will choose their next governor in November 2026 after a jungle primary narrowed the field to two candidates. The Democratic frontrunner brings experience from federal cabinet service and state attorney general tenure, while his Republican challenger advanced with national party support but faces a state where voter registration heavily favors Democrats. The general election campaign will test whether California remains reliably blue or if economic messaging can shift the outcome. For the complete breakdown of catalysts, positioning, and margin opportunities, read the full analysis.