Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

Current odds

• ↑ 1550 — 19.0%
• ↑ 1600 — 10.5%
• ↑ 1650 — 7.5%
• ↑ 1700 — 4.7%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

About this market: ↑ 1550 leads the "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?" market, ahead of ↑ 1600 and ↑ 1650. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.