China Annual GDP Growth 2026

Current odds

• 4.0–5.0% — 95.5%
• 5.0–6.0% — 3.5%
• 3.0–4.0% — 0.9%
• 8.0–9.0% — 0.3%
• 9.0%+ — 0.3%
• 2.0–3.0% — 0.2%
• 6.0-7.0% — 0.1%
• <1.0% — 0.1%
• 7.0–8.0% — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

About this market: This market resolves on the full-year 2026 real GDP growth figure in China's first official estimate, due from the National Bureau of Statistics in January 2027. Later revisions do not count, and a print exactly on a boundary such as 5.0% resolves to the higher bracket. The price mostly moves on the quarterly GDP releases and the monthly activity data, as traders compare the second-half pace with Beijing's 4.5% to 5% target and the soft year-ago comparisons from late 2025. Our analysis covers how the board has repriced around each release, where the thin tail brackets are mispriced, and which dates matter before resolution. read the full analysis