Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

Current odds

• Farage 60–70% — 47.5%
• Farage 70–80% — 24.1%
• Farage 50–60% — 16.0%
• Farage 80%+ — 10.5%
• Farage 40–50% — 2.5%
• Farage <40% — 0.5%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

About this market: Farage 60–70% leads the "Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %" market, ahead of Farage 70–80% and Farage 50–60%. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.