Clacton by-election Winner

Current odds

• Nigel Farage — 95.4%
• Count Binface — 4.9%
• William Clouston — 0.9%
• Giles Watling — 0.1%
• Jovan Owusu-Nepaul — 0.1%
• Matthew Bensilum — 0.1%
• Natasha Osben — 0.1%
• Tony Mack — 0.1%
• Andrew Pemberton — 0.1%
• John Stevens — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

About this market: The Clacton by-election was triggered when Nigel Farage resigned his seat in July 2026 amid a Parliamentary Commissioner investigation into undeclared donations. All major UK parties have boycotted the contest, leaving satirical candidate Count Binface as the de facto main challenger in this unprecedented electoral showdown. The August 13 vote will determine whether Farage's appeal to Clacton's strongly pro-Brexit electorate can overcome mounting ethics scrutiny. read the full analysis