Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?

Current odds

• December 31, 2026 — 5.9%
• July 31, 2026 — 0.9%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo announces she is resigning as President of Mexico or otherwise ceases to be President of Mexico for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Claudia Sheinbaum or the Government of Mexico, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

About this market: December 31, 2026 leads the "Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?" market, ahead of July 31, 2026. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.