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Fed Decision in July?

Current odds

  • No change — 82.0%
  • 25 bps increase — 16.2%
  • 25 bps decrease — 1.3%
  • 50+ bps decrease — 0.5%
  • 50+ bps increase — 0.5%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

About this market: The July 2026 FOMC meeting marks Chair Kevin Warsh's second decision amid persistent inflation and a hawkish dot plot signaling potential rate hikes. Polymarket currently prices an 82% probability of a hold at 3.5%-3.75%, with a 17% chance of a 25-basis-point increase driven by PCE inflation running above 4% and oil prices elevated by the Iran conflict. Key catalysts include the June jobs report on July 2, the June CPI release on July 10, and ongoing geopolitical developments that could shift energy markets. read the full analysis

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