Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Current odds

• Other — 58.5%
• Pause–Pause–Pause — 36.5%
• Pause–Pause–Cut — 1.9%
• Pause–Cut–Pause — 1.5%
• Pause–Cut–Cut — 0.4%
• Cut–Pause–Pause — 0.1%
• Cut–Pause–Cut — 0.1%
• Cut–Cut–Pause — 0.1%
• Cut–Cut–Cut — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

About this market: Other leads the "Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)" market, ahead of Pause–Pause–Pause and Pause–Pause–Cut. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.