Fed rate cut by...?

Current odds

• December Meeting — 16.0%
• October Meeting — 10.4%
• September Meeting — 3.8%
• July Meeting — 0.4%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: Meeting leads the "Fed rate cut by...?" market, ahead of Meeting and Meeting. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.