Fed rate hike by...?

Current odds

• October Meeting — 65.5%
• September Meeting — 53.5%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: Fed rate hike by...? Traders price this finance market continuously, and the odds move as new information lands. Our analysis breaks down how the market is priced, what would have to change for it to move, and how to take a leveraged position on the outcome. read the full analysis