Fed rate hike in 2026?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: This market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once before the end of 2026. The June FOMC meeting marked a turning point, with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaling determination to reach the inflation target and the dot plot shifting decisively hawkish. Traders can position on the headline outcome or on individual meeting dates - October and September currently lead the timing bets - and express conviction with up to 5x leverage. For a detailed breakdown of the catalysts, pricing, and trade setups, read the full analysis.