GPT-6 released by…?

Current odds

• December 31, 2026 — 87.5%
• September 30, 2026 — 65.0%
• August 31, 2026 — 34.5%
• August 21, 2026 — 23.5%
• August 14, 2026 — 6.5%
• August 7, 2026 — 1.4%
• July 31, 2026 — 0.5%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

About this market: December 31, 2026 leads the "GPT-6 released by…?" market, ahead of September 30, 2026 and August 31, 2026. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.