GPT-6 released by…?

Current odds

• September 15, 2026 — 100.0%
• October 31, 2026 — 100.0%
• November 30, 2026 — 100.0%
• December 31, 2026 — 100.0%
• September 30, 2026 — 100.0%
• July 31, 2026 — 0.0%
• August 31, 2026 — 0.0%
• August 7, 2026 — 0.0%
• August 14, 2026 — 0.0%
• August 21, 2026 — 0.0%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

About this market: GPT-6 released by…? Traders price this tech market continuously, and the odds move as new information lands. Our analysis breaks down how the market is priced, what would have to change for it to move, and how to take a leveraged position on the outcome. read the full analysis