Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Current odds

• Fernando Dias da Costa — 10.7%
• Baciro Djá — 3.6%
• João de Deus Mendes — 3.5%
• José Mário Vaz — 2.6%
• Herculano Armando Bequinsa — 1.8%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

About this market: Costa leads the "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" market, ahead of Djá and Mendes. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.