Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: Will the World Health Organization declare a hantavirus pandemic in 2026? This market tracks whether WHO explicitly characterizes hantavirus or a related syndrome as a pandemic before December 31, 2026. The May 2026 Andes virus cruise ship outbreak infected 13 people but WHO declared it over without pandemic status. Resolution requires WHO to use the word pandemic in official communications - a PHEIC alone does not qualify. read the full analysis