How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Current odds

• 11–13 — 18.0%
• 8–10 — 1.2%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

About this market: 11–13 leads the "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" market, ahead of 8–10. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.