How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?

Current odds

• 16-19 — 28.0%
• 20-23 — 15.0%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: 16-19 leads the "How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?" market, ahead of 20-23. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.