How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Current odds

• 4 — 49.5%
• 5 — 29.0%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

About this market: This market tracks the total number of different countries Israel will conduct military strikes against during 2026. Four nations are already confirmed - Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq - with Yemen emerging as the most likely fifth target following renewed Houthi missile attacks. The outcome hinges on whether current ceasefires hold or whether escalation draws in additional theaters before year-end resolution. For leverage traders looking to position on geopolitical risk, read the full analysis.