How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Current odds

• 0 (0 bps) — 88.8%
• 1 (25 bps) — 6.5%
• 2 (50 bps) — 2.5%
• 3 (75 bps) — 1.1%
• 6 (150 bps) — 0.5%
• 4 (100 bps) — 0.4%
• 5 (125 bps) — 0.4%
• 12+ (300+ bps) — 0.4%
• 7 (175 bps) — 0.3%
• 8 (200 bps) — 0.1%
• 9 (225 bps) — 0.1%
• 10 (250 bps) — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

About this market: This market tracks how many times the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during 2026. The Iran war energy shock and Chair Warsh's hawkish stance have dramatically shifted expectations since January, with most traders now anticipating no cuts at all this year. Key decision points include the July, September, October, and December FOMC meetings, with monthly CPI releases providing critical data between meetings. Geopolitical developments affecting oil prices could rapidly shift the calculus in either direction - read the full analysis.