How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

Current odds

• >1m — 2.5%
• <200k — 2.2%
• 600-700k — 2.1%
• 800-900k — 1.6%
• 700-800k — 1.5%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

About this market: >1m leads the "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" market, ahead of <200k and 600-700k. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.