How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

Current odds

• 1250+ — 90.0%
• 1150–1199 — 3.2%
• 1100–1149 — 2.2%
• 950–999 — 0.2%
• 1000–1049 — 0.1%
• 1050–1099 — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count. As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.

About this market: 1250+ leads the "How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?" market, ahead of 1150–1199 and 1100–1149. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.