IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

Current odds

• October 31 — 16.5%
• August 31 — 2.9%
• July 31 — 0.8%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.

About this market: October 31 leads the "IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?" market, ahead of August 31 and July 31. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.