Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Current odds

• December 31 — 10.5%
• October 31 — 6.5%
• August 31 — 2.8%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

About this market: This market tracks whether Iran agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by specific calendar deadlines. The June 2026 Versailles MOU deferred uranium disposition to a separate 60-day negotiation window, fundamentally changing the timeline and removing any binding commitment for immediate transfer. Iran's Foreign Ministry has publicly stated that uranium transfer is not on the agenda, while the IAEA faces verification challenges after the 2025 strikes buried material at Isfahan. For a detailed breakdown of the catalysts and leverage trading opportunities, read the full analysis.