Iran leader end of 2026?

Current odds

• Mojtaba Khamenei — 77.8%
• No Head of State — 9.8%
• Reza Pahlavi — 4.3%
• Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf — 2.4%
• Alireza Arafi — 1.8%
• Ahmad Vahidi — 0.9%
• Hassan Rouhani — 0.8%
• Abbas Araghchi — 0.7%
• Masoud Pezeshkian — 0.6%
• Hassan Khomeini — 0.5%
• Muhammad Mirbaqiri — 0.3%
• Sadegh Larijani — 0.3%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

About this market: This market tracks who will serve as Iran's Supreme Leader or head of state at the end of 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei was installed in March 2026 following his father's death but has not appeared publicly, creating uncertainty about his health and hold on power. The field includes 123 candidates ranging from internal succession options like Ghalibaf and Arafi to regime-change scenarios represented by Reza Pahlavi. The market resolves December 31, 2026 based on official government status. For full analysis of the odds and catalysts, read the full analysis.