Iran leadership change by...?

Current odds

• June 30, 2027 — 19.5%
• December 31 — 6.5%
• November 30 — 2.5%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

About this market: This market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei, who became Iran's Supreme Leader after his father was killed in February 2026, will stop being the country's de facto leader before each listed deadline. A Yes resolution comes from his removal, detention, incapacity or any other loss of effective control, or from an official announcement that he is resigning or being removed, as confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. Key drivers include his health and continued absence from public view after the strike that killed his father, the Revolutionary Guard's growing hold on state power, doubts inside the Assembly of Experts about his legitimacy, the fragile ceasefire with the United States and Israel, and ongoing domestic unrest. For the succession background, the factional dynamics and the catalysts to watch, read the full analysis