Iran leadership change by December 31?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

About this market: This market tracks whether Iran experiences a leadership change by December 31, 2026. Following the assassination of Ali Khamenei in February 2026 US-Israeli strikes, his son Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as Supreme Leader on March 9, constituting a historic succession. With Mojtaba remaining unseen in public due to injuries and the IRGC consolidating control over state functions, prediction market traders now price the probability of further leadership disruption through year-end. read the full analysis