Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Current odds

• December 31 — 12.0%
• September 30 — 5.0%
• August 31 — 2.1%
• July 31 — 0.5%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

About this market: This market tracks whether Israel will announce a complete withdrawal of ground forces from Lebanese territory by specified deadlines. Resolution requires an official Israeli announcement that all forces have departed - planned withdrawals or partial pullbacks do not qualify. The Shebaa Farms area is excluded from consideration. Multiple timelines are available, from July 2026 through December 2026, allowing traders to express views on both whether and when withdrawal occurs. read the full analysis