July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Current odds

• 1.25–1.29ºC — 8.5%
• 1.10–1.14ºC — 1.4%
• <1.10ºC — 0.2%
• >1.29ºC — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

About this market: 1.25–1.29ºC leads the "July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" market, ahead of 1.10–1.14ºC and <1.10ºC. Trade any outcome with leverage up to 5x.