June Inflation US - Annual

Current odds

• ≤3.6% — 100.0%
• 3.7% — 0.0%
• 3.8% — 0.0%
• 3.9% — 0.0%
• 4.0% — 0.0%
• 4.1% — 0.0%
• 4.2% — 0.0%
• 4.3% — 0.0%
• 4.4% — 0.0%
• 4.5% — 0.0%
• 4.6% — 0.0%
• ≥4.7% — 0.0%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

About this market: This analysis examines June 2026 US inflation prediction market odds, where the 3.8% bracket commands 49% implied probability following the Iran ceasefire's impact on energy prices. The piece breaks down why traders expect a drop from May's 4.2% reading, identifies the 4.0% bracket as potentially underpriced given Cleveland Fed nowcasts, and maps key catalysts including the July 14 BLS release. read the full analysis