Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Current odds

• Amal Movement (Amal) — 1.1%
• Lebanese Forces (LF) — 0.7%
• Hezbollah (Hezb) — 0.6%
• Union Party (UP) — 0.1%
• Mada Party (Mada) — 0.1%
• Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana) — 0.1%
• Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO) — 0.1%
• Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) — 0.1%
• Marada Movement (MM) — 0.1%
• Islamic Group (IG) — 0.1%
• Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA) — 0.1%
• Kataeb Party (Kataeb) — 0.1%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

About this market: Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner? Traders price this geopolitics market continuously, and the odds move as new information lands. Our analysis breaks down how the market is priced, what would have to change for it to move, and how to take a leveraged position on the outcome. read the full analysis