Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Current odds

• Karen Bass — 62.5%
• Nithya Raman — 39.0%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

About this market: Los Angeles voters will choose their next mayor in a November runoff between incumbent Karen Bass and progressive challenger Nithya Raman. Bass brings institutional backing and state Democratic endorsements but faces criticism over her handling of the 2025 Palisades Fire and homelessness. Raman surged from longshot to genuine contender after edging out Spencer Pratt for second place in the June primary, consolidating progressive and change-oriented voters. The October debates and November election create clear windows for this race to reprice - read the full analysis.