Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Current odds

• ↑4k — 35.5%
• ↑5k — 16.5%
• ↑7.5k — 12.0%
• ↑10k — 6.7%
• ↑12.5k — 4.5%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

About this market: This market tracks confirmed measles cases in the United States during 2026 across ten threshold levels from 500 to 12,500. Resolution is based on the official CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter at year-end. The outbreak has already exceeded 2,200 cases by mid-year, making lower thresholds near-certain while higher levels remain actively traded. read the full analysis