MLB: ERA Leader

Current odds

• Dylan Cease — 5.9%
• Paul Skenes — 1.9%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: The 2026 MLB ERA leader race features historic performances from multiple starters, with a Phillies lefty chasing century-old records and a Brewers rookie throwing the fastest pitch ever recorded by a starter. The field remains wide open heading into the All-Star break, with no single pitcher commanding dominant odds. Upcoming catalysts including All-Star selections, the midsummer showcase in Philadelphia, and the August trade deadline will reshape the competitive landscape before the September stretch run determines the winner. For the complete breakdown of every contender and the leverage opportunities each presents, read the full analysis.