MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

Current odds

• Chandler Simpson — 9.0%
• José Caballero — 6.0%
• Victor Scott II — 1.1%
• Brice Turang — 0.7%
• Elly De La Cruz — 0.3%

Prices are live implied probabilities from the order book and update continuously.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the player who steals the most bases during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records fewer caught stealings during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player with the higher on base percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more total bases during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market: The 2026 MLB stolen bases leader market features a fascinating disconnect: Nasim Nunez leads the majors with 32 steals but Bobby Witt Jr. commands the favorite role at 40.7% implied probability with 30 steals. The market is pricing Witt's superior offensive profile (.290 BA) over Nunez's speed-only game (.235 BA), betting that consistent plate appearances will outweigh the current two-steal deficit over the final three months. With contenders like Chandler Simpson, Oneil Cruz, and Jose Caballero lurking at 21 and 20 steals, this race remains fluid heading into September. Read the full analysis.